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Summary  ~ Telcos stock had not been doing well this year (at least for now) ~ Low EBITDA growth ~ Regional Telcos stocks are dropping from the peak on May 2013 ~ The bond yield had rose recently, which going to attract funds flowing to bond rather than telcos stock ~ ARPU is trending down!     Telcos stocks are not exactly defensive for now:    - 2012 rally was due to liquidity rather than fundamentals.    - current  valuations are substantially above the previous years mean    - Industry development (such as LTE deployment) taking a back seat    - Potentialy prone to profit taking Analysis Market Share for Prepaid   ~ Maxis is trying to address their prepaid subscriber share  ~ Celcom showing success at competing outsider price  ~ Digi had a poor 1Q13 Winner for this segment is Celcom a.k.a AXIATA Market Share for Postpaid  ~ ARPU for 1Q is seasonally lower   ~ Steady operating trend for a...

Maybank Investment had been putting quite a lots of effort in order to attract more customers to trade and increase the trade volume. As a result, they have research talk almost every week and they did have a radio programme name Morning Fix that broadcast on BFM by every morning 0750- 0800. This Morning Fix will interview most of the prominent research analyst across the SE Asia, they will give u their point of view from Macro to Micro and review on their company too.  As some of the investors might missed the Morning Fix, I've got another place for you to read whether what's been discussed and what's are they recommending. For those who are interested, you can click the link below and make it as your favourite for the market research.  Loryau @ Morning Fix   or u can just go to --> www.loryaumorning.blogspot.com Hope you would enjoy it! Huat ah! 

1st and foremost would like to thank MAYBANK for organising such an event to share us knowledge about their research. The key drivers for Plantation counter 1. Prices of CPO  -higher prices will benefit the producer as they have more margin from their production 2. Operating cost  - lower cost to get higher margin 3. Production of FFB - the more you produce the more u able to sell and make, but need to be aware of the CPO price also. These 3 factors are the main drivers for the P&L of a plantation company The analyst pointed out that, its not easy to get a cheap and undervalue plantation stock in malaysia as the CPO price had drop from the highest level but the Plantation index is still remain at high level. This is due to those syariah fund(a big chunk of money in msia) can't really invest into non-syariah compliance counter, hence, telcos and plantation is where they invested heavily. As a result, plantation is well supported. The analyst also told us that those compan...

As of the post on 4th of June which points out about the Hindenburgh Omen, I've pointed out that the US market is heading to a big correction or even a CRASH. But as thing changed rapidly, I will have to go against my comment again just like what I did  to the Nikkei Post. For those who hasn't read anything about the Hindenburgh Omen, U could take a look on this. " The Hindenburgh Omen" on US market." Why do I change my view again?   Before telling you the reason why, let's see how one of the "Hindenburgh Omen" failed.  As we can see, the last "Hindenburgh Omen" happen in August of year 2010 and it had failed. The reason behind that the "Hindenburgh Omen" failed was due to the FED had introduced and wanted to implement QE2 which we deem as a catalyst to push the market. Its obvious isn't it?  As on the past friday , we had see that the statistic being released by the US was  " The May payrolls increase fell short of 200...

In the previous post, I've said that the Nikkei is going to have a massive correction. Those who haven't view it, you can find it here. 71.43% that the Japanese Nikkei gonna have massive correction!  As for your info, some of my friends claim that I've posted it much more earlier as the Nikkei had drop about 14% when I posted it, but it wasn't too late as the Nikkei had continue to drop for another 1778 points from 14326 pts til the lowest by this morning which is 12548 pts. So that call was not too bad isn't it? This was still right and holds until 1200pm 7th June 2013 . Why do I said so? As at 12pm just now, I had saw a very interesting breaking news from Marketwatch.com and this is what I saw in that post. Soros shorting yen, buying Japan stocks: report This is interesting and below is the article from the website.  HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- A hedge fund run by billionaire investor George Soros was back placing bets in Japan, shorting the yen and snapping ...

A few days ago Michael Cembalest whom is Global Head of Investment Strategy in J.P. Morgan had did some research about Nikkei regarding their sharp rising from 9000 points in November 2012 til 15600points in May 2013 which is also 73.33% increment within half year and I would share some points that he pointed out there.   What happened in Japan last week (a 14% decline after a 85% rally since last fall) How much optimism was priced into the success of Japan’s monetary policy bazooka? As JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes, P/E multiples rose from 11x to 17x since last Labor Day, and breakeven inflation implied by (admittedly thin) Japanese JGB-i bond markets rose to 2%, a level Japan has not seen consistently since 1990. On top of that, net long positions on the Tokyo Stock exchange were close to the highest levels in 20 years, and foreign participation in Japanese equity markets was also elevated. It did not take much detailed market research to see that Japan had become...

Have read about the Hindenburg Omen on NanYang Siang Pau yesterday and this is a close look up on the "sign". This is an article taken from the  http://www.marketwatch.com/ .  And the reason it’s been getting so much chatter lately is that the stars have already aligned, just as they did in October 2007. But exactly what are the signs of the  Hindenburg Omen ? Well, a series of market breadth indicators need to occur twice within 36 trading days of each other to portend a serious market decline within the next 40 days. Both the daily number of 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange are equal or greater than 2.2% of NYSE stocks that day. The 10-week (or 50-day) moving average is rising. The  McClellan Oscillator , a measure of market breadth based on exponential moving averages of advancing and declining stocks, must be negative, or bearish. New 52-week highs are not more than twice the number of 52-week lows. All four of those conditions were m...